Elias Pettersson’s tentativeness has contributed to scoring slump

Elias Pettersson is the most scrutinized man in Vancouver, if not the entire NHL. 

Unfortunately for the Vancouver Canucks‘ highly compensated forward, he has not done enough to silence the skeptics.

Recently, there was his uninspiring performance for Sweden at the 4 Nations Face-Off followed by an unforced error when he brushed off his scoring slump by saying, “It’s more annoying dealing with the media.” (The rift with J.T. Miller also still hangs over Pettersson’s head even after the Canucks traded Miller to the New York Rangers at the end of January.) 

It feels like the Canucks have reached a critical inflection point with Pettersson, who has one goal in his past 20 games and is on pace for 49 points.

The no-movement clause in Pettersson’s $11.6 million-per-year contract takes effect July 1, and it is fair to wonder if he will ever return to the level he reached in 2022-23.

The most pointed criticism of Pettersson came from Canucks coach Rick Tocchet, who said this to Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre last week: “I think he’s waiting for something. I don’t know if it’s a lack of confidence in his shot, but as soon as he has room, he’s got to take it and … blast it. I’d rather him just rip a puck right now.” 

Tocchet is right about Pettersson’s tentativeness. Pettersson is firing the puck at a notably lower rate (3.85 per game) compared to two seasons ago when he averaged nearly six shot attempts per game en route to scoring 39 goals.  

Tocchet told MacIntyre that Pettersson “can’t double-clutch (with the puck),” pointing to the end of the Canucks’ 2-1 loss to the Utah Hockey Club last Sunday. In the waning moments of regulation, Pettersson received a pass from Filip Chytil outside the slot and held the puck for a few seconds before releasing a shot that did not reach the net.  

That used to not be a problem for Pettersson. He finished 11th in the league in one-timers taken two years ago, averaging 1.7 per game. Around 29 per cent of his total shot attempts in 2022-23 were one-timers. That figure has been sliced in half this season (14.4 per cent). Pettersson’s 30 one-timers (0.56 per game) rank tied for 181st. On top of that, he has hit the net on only 12 of them (40 per cent).  

On average this season, Pettersson has had the puck on his stick for 2.5 seconds before shooting — up from 1.5 seconds in 2022-23. (It was 1.8 seconds last season.) 

There is an all-encompassing metric that shows how much Pettersson’s overall offensive impact has diminished over the past couple of years: offence-generating plays (OGP). They include passes and carries to the slot, passes for one-timers, outside shots that generate rebounds and other events that typically lead to goals and assists.

When Pettersson recorded 102 points in 2022-23, he averaged 10.3 offence-generating plays. That ranked 17th in the league per game, right behind Pittsburgh’s Evgeni Malkin and directly ahead of New Jersey’s Nico Hischier. This season, Pettersson is 83rd in that category at 7.43 OGP per game.  

In fairness to Pettersson, Quinn Hughes does a lot of the heavy lifting when it comes to driving the play. Overall, however, Pettersson is much less involved in the offence, which should be of major concern to the Canucks.  

Pettersson, to his credit, is one of the top defensive forwards in the league, ranking tied for fifth at the position in blocked passes and 14th in blocked shots. But it will take more than that for him to justify his salary.  

This is a time of upheaval in Vancouver. Miller is gone, and Brock Boeser could also be on his way out of British Columbia, perhaps as soon as this week with the trade deadline looming Friday. Despite all the drama, the Canucks are squarely in the race for a wild-card spot in the Western Conference.  

These are the moments when leaders are supposed to rise to the occasion. The Canucks are still waiting for Pettersson to do so.