Why chocolate, candy prices are up in Canada

The price of Halloween candy is probably scaring your wallet right now.

There are a couple of factors pushing prices higher this year, University of Guelph Food Economist Michael von Massow tells 1130 NewsRadio.

He says the counter-tariffs implemented by Canada on the U.S. earlier this year came at a time when grocery stores were buying their annual lot of Halloween and holiday treats. And because candy doesn’t go bad very quickly, von Massow says you could be eating those extra costs by next Valentine’s Day as well.

“We’re coming to Halloween, and the demand for candy goes up substantially.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney has removed most of Canada’s retaliatory tariffs.

However, von Massow says the situation is complicated further by the conditions affecting raw cocoa.

“Cocoa is one of the canaries in the coal mine of global warming. We’ve seen lots of impact on food from extreme weather, but cocoa is very susceptible to small changes in temperature. So, even half a degree or a degree can affect disease susceptibility and yield. We expect the industry to adjust over time. But because yields are down, we’re seeing increases in cocoa prices, which leads to an increase in chocolate prices.”

He adds that items like gummy bears are also up in price.

“Cocoa is one of the canaries in the coal mine of global warming.”

Via email to 1130 NewsRadio, Statistics Canada echoed von Massow.

“Cocoa appears in the ‘all other miscellaneous food preparations’ index, which also includes honey and flavoured gelatine powder. The ‘all other miscellaneous food preparations’ index increased by 14.4 per cent in September compared with September 2024,” it said. “A contributing factor to higher prices for confectionery and all other miscellaneous food preparations is higher prices for raw cocoa. Most of the world’s cocoa is produced in a few West African countries. Poor weather in the growing regions has contributed to smaller harvests, which has put upward pressure on prices for consumers.”

The federal agency adds that the price of confectionery, which includes chocolate bars and gum, increased 10.4 per cent in September compared with the same month in 2024.

Von Massow suggested a possible workaround for increased cocoa prices.

“We’ve heard about lab-grown meat. In the coming years, they’ve also been able to grow cocoa, and so we might have lab-grown chocolate before too long. That’s not going to help us for this Valentine’s Day or Christmas. But within a couple of years, we’ll be able to have multiple sources of those products and not be as susceptible to these supply issues.”

‘They’ being various companies, explains von Massow, which he maintains are using microbes to create lab-grown products.

‘Shrinkflation’ is also affecting candy prices, which means boxes of those tiny chocolate bars don’t or won’t go nearly as far.

“It’s not a surprise,” said von Massow.

“I’ve heard lots of complaints those little bars are getting smaller, there are fewer in the box, and it’s hard for us to adjust.”