How will the Bloc Québécois fare?

A possible Liberal minority government could put the Bloc Québécois in a position of strength in the House of Commons, says party Leader Yves-François Blanchet.

With votes still being counted in the early hours of election night, the Bloc was on track to win 23 seats in Parliament, down from the 33 MPs it had when the election was called.

“It could be that in a complex and eventful evening, the weight of the Bloc Québécois deputation will be extraordinarily important in the composition of Parliament,” Blanchet told supporters.

Blanchet says that would put Quebec’s issues as “part of the unavoidable narrative of a minority Parliament in Ottawa.”

But the number of seats held by the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP would all have to go Blanchet’s way — something that wasn’t always the case as more votes were being counted.

Political analyst Karim Boulos explains there is a situation where the Bloc could indeed have “the balance of power” in Ottawa, leaving the Quebec-only federal party with a surprising amount of influence despite losing several seats.

“They will actually be the ones that will keep the Liberals in power should something, a non-confidence vote be launched by Mr. (Pierre) Poilievre,” Boulos told CityNews. “So despite losing possibly 10 seats compared to the dissolution of Parliament, they’re going to fare surprisingly well. They’re going to have a lot more power than others would have thought prior to this election.

“Quebec will have a decision-making ability and he (Blanchet) could be a kingmaker or he can remove Mr. (Mark) Carney from office if he sides with the Conservatives.”

Despite the BQ being able to frame the result as a win, Boulos says it’s clear the “Bloc is in decline.”

“The sovereigntist question has to be rethought,” the political analyst said. “And certainly, if you place sovereignty up against the economy and inflation and so on, Quebecers clearly chose the side of taking care of the economy, taking care of the immediate needs.”

Blanchet has previously predicted the appetite for Quebec independence will “come roaring back” when the political and trade environment with the U.S. becomes stable again.

Boulos says Blanchet made the best of a “terrible situation.”

“There was a time when everyone thought that the Bloc was almost dead, it was about to lose everything, they were projected to drop below 20 seats,” Boulos said. “So he saved enough to keep the Bloc relevant going into the next parliamentary session.”

How did the Bloc get here?

Ironically for a party whose raison d’être is defending the interests of the only province in which it exists, the Bloc’s fortunes became intricately linked to the ebbs and flows of national and international politics.

When support for then-prime minister Justin Trudeau was at an all-time low in December, some polls projected the Bloc could win enough seats to form the official Opposition in the House of Commons. It’s something that’s only happened once in the country’s history, when Lucien Bouchard won 54 seats in 1993 – two years before the province’s famous second referendum.

It was hardly a stretch, then, for political observers to interpret the Bloc’s resurgence in 2024 as momentum for the Quebec sovereignty movement. That was especially true given the Parti Québécois’ own comeback at the provincial level; the sovereigntist party led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon still holds a commanding lead in opinion polls.

But prospects of a “light blue wave” at the federal level didn’t stay afloat for along.

The Bloc’s poll numbers plummeted following Trudeau’s resignation and the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, whose tariff and annexation threats sent Canada into a spiral and prompted Canadians to rally around the flag in the face of economic devastation.

Quebec’s political landscape was not immune.

A February survey from Léger found the desire for a sovereign Quebec had dropped to 29 per cent in the province, among the lowest support ever measured by the polling firm. Léger indeed attributed it to “increased patriotism” in the country.

Earlier this month, a different Léger survey found nearly half of Quebecers believe an independent Quebec would have much less influence than a united Canada in dealing with the Trump administration.

In the campaign’s final week, Blanchet made a last-gasp pitch to Bloc supporters to return to the party. By conceding Carney would likely become Canada’s next prime minister, the Bloc leader asked Quebecers to ditch strategic voting and instead vote the party he says best represents Quebec’s interests.

From byelection victory to crushing defeat

All in all it was a far cry from the resounding celebrations, seven months earlier, when the Bloc triumphed over the Liberals and NDP in the Montreal Liberal stronghold riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun – a major blow to the governing Liberals that precipitated calls for Trudeau to resign as prime minister and party leader.

The Bloc went on to lose that riding to the Liberals on election night, with Claude Guay defeating Louis-Philippe Sauvé.

“I am really worried about the Americanization of the Canadian and Quebec’s politics because the only thing we talked about in this campaign is the United States,” Sauvé said. “But, as far as I am concerned, well, Canada is still an independent country. So I don’t know why people always talk about the United States or what the President of the United States says or decides. So it’s very concerning for me.

“The very paradox of this election is that we saw a wave of Canadian patriotism but only as a reaction to what the Americans are doing. But we don’t know really what we are going to do with our economy, with public service, with our taxes, with our way of life. We didn’t have a national discussion, so to say. So I think it’s very concerning.”

–With files from The Canadian Press