Metro Vancouver gas prices expected to dip this summer

For once, there is actually some good news when it comes to gas prices in one of the priciest regions of Canada.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.com, tells 1130 NewsRadio that if everything goes according to plan, prices could drop to as low as around $1.50 a litre for regular gas.

“We’ve seen prices about 26 cents lower today than where we were last year. So, to put that into context, more affordable means compared to where we’ve been the last couple of years, when gas prices in the summer in Vancouver have hit $2 a litre easily. This year, we should be able to avoid that,” he said on Tuesday.

However, there are multiple caveats. De Haan says the U.S. refineries that fuel the West Coast can’t have any more major breakdowns, fires or long periods of maintenance.

“We’re in the midst of that right now. In fact, gas prices over the last couple of weeks have been increasing significantly because of some of those refinery issues. Vancouver’s average is up 21 cents a litre from a month ago because of the refinery fires that have occurred down in California. As those issues get worked through and additional gasoline starts to arrive from Asia, we should start to see some relief.”

That relief could come in just the next few weeks.

De Haan explains that B.C. also relies heavily on the United States for gas.

“California has probably the most amount of refineries of any state on the West Coast. Right now, it stands at about nine that can produce gas and diesel, but one is slated to shut down here by the end of this year and another refinery in California is slated to shut down by April of next year. So, we are not going the right way when it comes to refining capacity, and that does have a direct impact on not only the West Coast of the U.S., but the western coast of Canada as well.”

De Haan says there are some other things that are out of our control that will affect gas prices, including if there are any policy changes announced by the U.S. president, changes to the trade war, or whether ceasefires are agreed to in at least two active wars.

“If there is a potential nuclear deal with Iran could also push prices down later this summer. That’s all something where we’re hoping for the best, and if the best does develop, then we could see prices back below the $1.50 a litre mark for the summer.”

He adds Prime Minister Mark Carney scrapping the federal carbon tax is also playing a role in all this — a move matched by the B.C. government, effective April 1.

“We haven’t seen it fully cancelled yet, that would take an act of legislation, but for now, having the end of the federal carbon tax is saving Canadians 17 cents a litre.”