SFU prof. says new pipeline in B.C. would be unnecessary

As the federal government nears a memorandum of understanding with Alberta that could include a new oil pipeline to the West Coast, experts in B.C. say the idea isn’t economically or environmentally viable.

The plan would require lifting a ban on tankers from carrying more than 12,500 metric tons of crude oil in areas along the northern coast of B.C.

Premier David Eby has called on Ottawa to keep the ban in place, and Canada’s Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson has previously said any pipeline through B.C. would need support from the province and First Nations.

Thomas Gunton, director of the Resource and Environmental program at Simon Fraser University, says he’s surprised the pipeline is being discussed, and more surprised B.C. hasn’t been included in the conversation.

He says the proposal, or lack thereof, suffers from three major flaws.

“Number 1, there is simply insufficient demand to support this pipeline, so it’s not an economically viable project,” Gunton explained.

“Demand in China has already peaked — oil demand — and will begin to decline [more] as it electrifies its transportation sector. And so there’s simply not enough demand. We’re already producing more oil than we need right now.”

Secondly, Gunton says existing pipelines already hold the potential to expand their capacity to meet that diminishing demand — at a lower cost.

“So that would be better for Alberta, better for the oil industry and better for B.C., because that would not involve risks to B.C.’s coast — which is of course the third major problem with this pipeline.”

He explains the tanker ban is in place because of a significant risk of devastating oil spills.

“That’s why no private company is proposing to build a pipeline. There’s simply not an economic case for it, and it does not make environmental sense.”

The ban, he says, protects a “pristine ecological gem” that supports a massive fishing and tourism industry in the area, but also protects tankers from high-risk shipping conditions.

“And the other point that’s been brought up is that there’s a social licence here that British Columbia has developed with First Nations to support significant economic development projects, tens of billions of [dollars in] economic development projects are underway in this region,” said Gunton.

“And right now, that social licence, that support from First Nations, would be jeopardized by trying to drive through a pipeline like this.”

Gunton recalled the Northern Gateway Pipelines proposal that was defeated in a federal court of appeal in 2016, citing failure to properly consult with First Nations in B.C.

He says he doubts the new project will ever be built, and meanwhile, the idea fuels conflict between provinces when unity has become deeply important.

“The federal government made a serious misstep here by not involving British Columbia in discussions on a pipeline that goes through the province of British Columbia.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney could announce the memorandum of understanding as early as Thursday, when he is expected to make a speech to the Calgary Chamber of Congress.

—With files from Cormac Mac Sweeney and The Canadian Press