U.S. tariffs a ‘serious threat’ to B.C.: Premier David Eby

If United States president-elect Donald Trump comes good on his tariff threats against Canada, British Columbia could see devastating consequences.

Following this week’s premiers meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, where the potential U.S. tariffs threats were at the top of the agenda, B.C.’s premier and finance minister discussed the issue at a news conference on Thursday morning.

Premier David Eby began by saying that Trump has made “repeated declarations of economic war on Canada and British Columbia.”

“This is a challenging thing. It is a serious threat, and we want to share with you our best information about what this threat means for British Columbians, in the context of a larger threat to our country of Canada,” Eby explained.

“We know this will affect American families. It’s going to increase their costs. It’s going to make life more difficult for them, and it’s going to cost them jobs. But as the premier of British Columbia, I also want you to know how this will affect our province and what our province is doing to respond to that threat.

“The minister of finance and her team have been working since Nov. 25 when the threat was first made on the president[-elect]’s Truth Social network to analyze how this will affect us and ensure that we are prepared as a province to respond comprehensively, effectively and protect you and your families from this economic threat,” he stated.

Eby shared that for many, “we hoped that when we saw that tweet in late November, that this was a passing fantasy of the president, and he would move on to another issue.”

“We take this threat very, very seriously. This is a direct economic threat to B.C. families. It is an attack on families in our province. It is an attack on Canadians. There are consequences for Americans as well, that will also be devastating for them, around affordability and loss of employment — it goes both directions.”

Eby explained that the province’s commitment is to British Columbians, and its number one priority is ensuring that the province is prepared and responds in a way that protects families.

B.C. could see loss of $69B between 2025-26 with 25% tariff: Minister of finance

Brenda Bailey, the province’s minister of finance, shared that tariffs would be “unprecedented” in modern times, “which makes forecasting for such scenarios challenging.”

Bailey explained that the ministry’s modeling assumed a 25 per cent tariff for the entirety of Trump’s presidency, and the assumption that Canada would retaliate with a similar level of tariffs.

“This assessment should be interpreted as one of many possibilities, as there’s a great deal of uncertainty regarding the exact nature of the U.S. policies that may actually be implemented. The sources of uncertainty include the amount and scope of potential tariffs, the timing of announcement and implementation, whether other jurisdictions retaliate with tariffs of their own,” she explained.

B.C. is a small, open economy, Bailey said, sending approximately 54 per cent of its total merchandise exports to the U.S. in 2023, with the remaining exports sent to China, Japan, and other nations.

“Wood, pulp and paper, metallic minerals, and energy products combined to make up around 67 per cent of total goods exported,” Bailey said. “Our key commodity exports are, of course, softwood lumber, copper, natural gas, and coal,” she said.

“Our trade diversity helps shelter the economy from us tariffs and enables the province to bolster trade with Asian markets. This is where B.C.’s trade diversification helps set us apart from the rest of Canada, who are much more dependent on the U.S. as an export destination.”

“For example, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec send over 75 per cent of their goods exports to the U.S. However, the U.S. remains our largest trading partner, and the proposed tariffs would have significant impacts for B.C.’s economy,” she explained.

Bailey stated that the tariffs’ potential impact on B.C.’s GDP would be a slowdown of around 0.6 per cent year over year, in both 2025 and 2026.

“Over the long term, this represents a cumulative loss of around $69 billion between 2025 and 2026,” Bailey claimed.

Around 124,000 British Columbians could lose their job

The tariffs won’t just hit the province’s hip pocket but affect British Columbian jobs, too, the minister explained.

According to modeling, it’s estimated that there would be around 124,000 fewer jobs in B.C., Bailey said.

“By 2028, job declines would be concentrated in export-oriented industries, in the natural resource sector, and associated manufacturing,” she explained.

“This would include forestry, wood manufacturing, paper manufacturing, metal manufacturing, as well as in mining and oil and gas extraction. There would also be job losses in transportation and retail sectors,” Bailey added.

Investment in B.C. businesses would also decline, and corporate profits are estimated to be $6.1 billion lower in 2025, and $3.6 billion lower by 2028.

“From a revenue perspective, a significant economic slowdown would affect many of the province’s key revenue streams. Our preliminary assessment shows that this could have an annual revenue impact … with the largest impacts expected for personal and corporate income tax,” Bailey said.

B.C. is prepared to respond: Eby

Eby explained that on Wednesday, he sent mandate letters to each of his cabinet ministers, outlining a number of key steps that he wants them to take as part of the province’s strategy to respond to the tariffs.

“In particular, I have asked every cabinet minister to review programs within their ministry to ensure that we are not wasting money on administration that should go to front-line services, to ensure that the programs that we have in place are responsive to this new global environment, that we are strengthening our provincial economy and focusing on growth so that we can support families with good paying jobs, even in time of economic threat,” he stated.

Eby said that as part of B.C.’s three-part response, B.C. will fully support the federal government to respond against the “unfair, unnecessary, and unjustified and costly tariffs.”

“As part of our response in British Columbia, we are reviewing non-tariff measures that may be available for British Columbia to reinforce how inter-tied we are between the United States and Canada and how our shared prosperity is on the line,” he explained.

“We will do that work in partnership with the federal government and with other provinces to ensure a coordinated ‘Team Canada’ response. We will also be active participants in the tariff mission, to Washington, D.C., with all premiers to make our case directly to decision-makers on Capitol Hill in the United States.

“And individual ministers as well as myself, have been reaching out to our friends south of the border, and they are our friends. They are our family, people who we have worked with for years in western states, governors, and business leaders, to ensure that they understand the consequences of these decisions for their states, for their people and for their economy,” he said.

Eby said the province will also be strengthening its own economy by deepening its partnerships nationally, including removing inter-provincial trade barriers, such as the recent one wine agreement with Alberta, and with electricity and energy. Eby also noted that the province will diversify its trade partners, and will engage with other affected countries around the world.

“We will partner with those countries and work with them to respond and also to deepen our relationships with them. We have trade relationships, strong trade relationships across the Pacific, with many different countries, and this is an opportunity for us to deepen and strengthen those relationships and reduce our dependence on the United States,” he said.

“Look, I know right now the numbers that the finance minister laid out the impact on British Columbia looks very scary for many families across British Columbia and across the country, but I firmly believe that we have everything that we need in this province to succeed,” Eby stated.

“We have the people with the skills, we have, the resources, we have the geography to take this threat and turn it into an opportunity to grow prosperity for everyone in this province and everybody in this country.”

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With files from Sonia Aslam.